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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair started an upward movement Tuesday night, and with the opening of the European trading session, this movement continued. Overall, as we discussed in our fundamental articles, the pound continues to be in close proximity to its 2.5-year highs. Thus, in the long term, the upward trend continues without options. In the last one and a half to two weeks, buyers got a little respite, but did not leave the market. Thus, for a start, the bulls brought the pair back to the critical line and made a number of unsuccessful attempts to overcome it. The first signal was generated in the morning. The price broke through the extremum level of 1.3857, then returned to it and bounced back from it. Traders could open long positions here. The closest target, with which we always recommend trading, was very close - this, in fact, was the critical line. Thus, according to this signal, traders could get no more than 20 points of profit, especially since the price immediately bounced off the Kijun-sen line on the first attempt, having already formed a sell signal. The signal to sell was "conditionally false", since the bears failed to reach the target level (all the same 1.3857), however, according to our recommendations, traders should have set Stop Loss in the right direction when passing 15-20 points in the right direction. breakeven, so this signal could have avoided losses, and even made money, if you manually close trades around 1.3857. As there was no clear rebound from the 1.3857 level this time, there was no signal to buy a new one either. The next signal - during the US session - is false. The price crossed the critical line and did not continue its upward movement. It was also possible to avoid losses here, since the price still moved 18 points in the right direction, but in general it was difficult to do this, so traders could still get 15-20 points of losses. Furthermore, the price went into an absolute flat, in which it is up to the current moment.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, you can see that the pound/dollar pair rose to the critical line and has failed to gain a foothold above it. Thus, the downward trend, which has a very conditional status, since there is no trendline or trend channel, remains in force. If the bulls still manage to pull the pair over the critical line today, this will significantly increase the likelihood of pushing the pair to the upside. The pound/dollar pair will then aim for the 1.3998 level, from which it rebounded three times only in the last week and a half. No fundamental and macroeconomic information from the UK today. Thus, the only event of the day will be the US inflation report, which can be easily ignored by traders. But the mood of the markets will depend on this report, which will be released after lunch. Therefore, you can open short positions when it rebounds from important levels and lines or after breaking them down from top to bottom. You are advised to open deals for buying in similar situations, as shown by the arrows in the chart. As before, you are advised to set the Stop Loss level when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 140 points during the last reporting week (February 23-March 1). Despite the fact that the pound fell during the reporting week and continued to fall after it, the mood of the "Non-commercial" group of traders is becoming increasingly bullish. At a time when the probability of ending the upward trend, on the contrary, is growing. But we have what we have. Non-commercial traders closed 2,500 buy contracts and 8,200 sell contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position increased by about 6,000 contracts, and the mood of the major players became more bullish. This change is much better shown using indicators. The second indicator, reflecting just the change in the size of the net position of "non-commercial", shows the growth of this indicator over the past five weeks. At the same time, starting from mid-December, the green and red lines of the first indicator, which represent the sizes of the "commercial" and "non-commercial" net positions, move away from each other. And this is a sign of strengthening the trend. Thus, in general, the data of the COT report now speaks not of the end of the upward trend, but of its preservation and strengthening. As we mentioned earlier, any conclusions drawn from the COT reports or "foundation" require confirmation by technical signals. Therefore, take note of the conclusion drawn from the COT reports, but at the same time remember that the pair has settled below the Kijun-sen line on the 24-hour timeframe, and downward trends have formed on the lower timeframes.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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