09.04.202103:46 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Overview of the EUR/USD pair on April 9. Economic stalemate for Jerome Powell, the Fed, and the US government.

4-hour timeframe

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 125.9707

The EUR/USD currency pair did not show any strong movements on Thursday. The calendar of macroeconomic events is now empty. There are practically no drivers for the pair. Of course, some reports are published from time to time, however, it is unlikely that the report on applications for unemployment benefits can be considered important. Thus, over the past day, the technical picture has not changed. The upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe is maintained. We continue to expect the continuation of the upward movement in the long term. We have already said that our expectations are based on the factor of strong inflating of the money supply in the United States. The government of this country is pouring trillions of dollars into maintaining a high rate of economic recovery. However, the flip side of the coin is the falling dollar and inflation. Because it is impossible to constantly print money in any quantity and saturate the economy with it, and at the same time not expect a negative effect. However, so far, there is no negative effect. Inflation is still not accelerating, which means that most of the money is lying dead under the pillows of Americans or in deposits or anywhere else. But they do not apply to the economy, and therefore do not cause price increases. Thus, the US government can throw money from a helicopter as much as it wants. If the Americans immediately put this money under their pillows, there will be no effect. Nevertheless, there is still reason to expect that the Americans will soon begin to get money out of the stash and start spending it. In the United States, vaccination continues to go at a high rate, quarantine restrictions are being relaxed and lifted, so in the near future, life may return to its usual course. Thus, Americans will no longer need to fear the epidemic and the crisis. According to the IMF, the United States is the fastest (probably not counting China) to reach the pre-crisis path of economic growth. Next year, the American economy will be as if there was no crisis at all. However, in the minds of ordinary people may remain the judgment that you need to be ready for anything. So increased caution can now go hand in hand with them for years to come. Now any household will seek to form a fund for a "rainy day". Not all the money from under the pillow will move to the markets. However, a certain part will undoubtedly do it, so we are still waiting for the money supply to inflate. And this will cause a strong fall in the US currency on the international currency market. Traders won't even have to get rid of the dollar. The dollar itself will fall simply because its amount will greatly increase.

Unfortunately, the actions of the US government in the last year up to now are not exactly "fair play". If it's so easy to achieve strong economic growth, just saturate the economy with money and that's it, then why don't all the countries of the world act on this principle in normal (non-crisis) times? Because, first of all, it is called "exchange rate manipulation" and "currency intervention". Any amount of dollars or euros or any currency that is printed by the relevant central bank will affect the exchange rates. Since for one country (for example, an export-oriented one), a low exchange rate of its currency is important, and for another (for example, an import-oriented one), the actions of one central bank can lead to negative financial consequences in several countries. Therefore, currency interventions are not carried out at any time and in large volumes. Secondly, countries that actively print money in normal times, when the population does not immediately put all the money received under the pillow, thus withdrawing it from the economy, provoke the highest inflation, which usually accelerates to such values that it is then extremely difficult to stop. Third, it is an increase in their debts that need to be serviced (if we are not talking about the banal printing of money, because governments can also raise funds through special funds that lend, through the placement of bonds), which creates an additional burden on the budget, which is constantly in deficit in the United States. Simply put, the United States is constantly living in debt, however, during the crisis, they had to increase their debts even more. However, in a crisis, you can still understand any state that saves its economy by all available means.

And the United States simply has no other way. Recall that in the international arena there is a global confrontation between the European Union, the United States, and China. Any delay in the economic growth of any player can result in the loss of leadership, the loss of its position on the world stage. The United States is now the first in terms of the economy, but many experts are already predicting that in the next 10 years, China will come out on top in terms of GDP. Now the question is: what would you do if you were the US government if you understood that China is catching up, and letting it go ahead can be dangerous for the whole nation and country and if you have only one way to stimulate your economy? Thus, the actions of the US authorities do not raise any questions. They will raise questions when inflation still jumps up and it will need to be extinguished. They will raise questions when the stock market will have another "Black Monday" and the "bubble" will burst. They will raise questions when the cryptocurrency market, which has also been actively inflated with dollars over the past year, collapses. Thus, from our point of view, despite the high rate of recovery of the US economy, the US dollar will continue to fall in the long term.

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 9 is 65 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1854 and 1.1984. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a possible round of a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1902

S2 – 1.1841

S3 – 1.1780

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2024

R3 – 1.2085

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues a rather strong upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.1963 and 1.1984 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed back below the moving average line with targets of 1.1780 and 1.1719.