29.04.202119:57 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Bitcoin goes on falling, analysts foresee crypto winter

Market's reaction to the Fed's rhetoric was really sluggish. Powell said that it was too early to discuss the withdrawal of stimulus measures. The fact is that the labor market is still weak despite a significant recovery. That is why bitcoin's reaction was rather modest. Now, it does not have a driver that may push it from the sideways channel. Let us take a look at a long-term tendency.

I have found an interesting poll devoted to the crypto winter. The crypto market is cyclical as any other market. That is why a crypto winter is inevitable.

Notably, in the crypto market, cycles are connected with halving. In case of bitcoin, for every 210,000 blocks that are mined, the reward for mining a block falls by half. As a result, a flow of new coins to the market becomes slower. When there is a drop in supply, the price is rising. Bitcoin halving usually occurs in four-year intervals.

As we remember, in 2018-2019, bitcoin declined to almost $3,000. After that, it skyrocketed above $60,000. It means that crypto winter is the best time to buy quite cheap coins.

The main question is when this winter will come. Experts have issued various forecasts. Martin Petkov at StormGain supposes that the crypto winter will come just after central banks launch their cryptocurrencies (CBDC). China is actively working over the digital yuan. However, pressure on miners is becoming stronger.

China is likely to be the first to launch its digital national currency. Then, the US will present the digital dollar. However, this will hardly happen earlier than in 2022.

Expert Vladislav Akelyev at ECOS thinks that a launch of CBDC is likely but not necessarily will lead to bitcoin's drop. He also foresees that the crypto winter may last long until the countries settle the regulation issues.

Now, unlike in 2017, more and more institutional traders are entering the market. That is why BTC may avoid a massive sell-off. Unlike retail traders, big players are able to keep the potentially profitable asset for a long time.

Most analysts expect the crypto winter in 2-3 years. That is why the current decline could be considered as a downward correction. At the same time, the uptrend will hardly be sharp.

Nevertheless, bitcoin is still hovering within the range of $53,980.47 (a lower blue dotted line) and the resistance level located at the 100% Fibonacci expansion ($55,793.92). The price is testing the horizontal line of $53,980.47. Thus, there is a possibility that BTC will slide deeper to $52,000 per coin.