18.05.202118:23 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Bitcoin: Statistics show panic sell-offs

Bitcoin has not yet changed its technical picture, all the price benchmarks and scenarios noted in yesterday's forecast remain in force.

Meanwhile, interesting information is coming in from the network data provider Glassnode. They show that the net positions of miners and long-term holders continue to grow. At the expense of whom, then, does bitcoin fall? As suggested in previous reviews - at the expense of speculators.

Thus, the number of non-zero bitcoin addresses has significantly decreased. Glassnode reports: "The total number of addresses with a non-zero BTC balance is down 2.8% from the recent all-time high of 38.7 million addresses. A total of 1.1 million addresses have used up all the coins they had during this correction, which again indicates that a panic sell-off is currently underway."

Let's look at the on-chain metrics. The SOPR or spent output profit ratio measures the net gain and loss on outstanding bitcoins. "Short-term SOPR holder" or STH-SOPR stands for coins younger than 155 days. STH-SOPR fell below the key threshold of 1 according to Glassnode data.

The drop in the SOPR below 1 indicates that short-term holders decided to panic sell, fixing investment losses. At the same time, long-term coin holders continued to accumulate them. As the Glassnode data shows, the number of accumulation addresses increased dramatically during the price collapse.

It is always interesting to understand what reputable analysts think about the situation and find that the opinion presented in their own forecast based on the plus/minus technical analysis coincides.

Experts note that the price of BTC has not yet reached its bottom, and they expect a further collapse. Rich Ross of Evercore ISI noted in an interview with Bloomberg that the price of bitcoin is likely to continue to decline, to support at the 200-day moving average, that is, near $40,000.

Tallbacken Capital Advisors, LLC CEO Michael Purves also noted that momentum has now shifted quite decisively towards the bears, and $42,000 is an important support for bitcoin. If it does not manage to stay higher, it is worth preparing for further losses.

Wall Street veteran and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said BTC will continue to remain under pressure at around $45,000 over the next six weeks. "I think we are going to consolidate for a while, four to six weeks," he said.

Let me remind you that based on the technical analysis on the daily chart of BTC/USD, the support level of 41,980.24 is clearly visible, above which the price has so far managed to stay. If an upward correction follows from this level, then it can be stopped by the resistance of the downward channel (marked with blue dotted lines) in the area of 51,000-54,000. And if the price rebounds from the resistance of this trend, it may be a signal of a deeper correction.

If the level of 41,980.24 does not hold up as a support, then, as noted yesterday, bitcoin will fly to almost $34,000 per coin, if, of course, the psychological level of $40,000 is broken.