17.06.202113:04 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on June 17 (analysis of morning trades).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Even in my morning forecast, I paid attention to further sales of the euro and recommended that you stick to them. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. The break of the level of 1.1986 led to its reverse test and the formation of a signal to open short positions in the continuation of the bear market. The fall was not long in coming, and after a while, the pair tested a new level of 1.1958 and broke below this range. From the bottom up, the reverse test of this area also formed an additional signal to open short positions to reach a new local low of 1.1923, which the bears have not yet reached.

Given that a major drop in the euro took place during the European session, it is best to stick to further short positions. The main task of the bulls is now to protect the support of 1.1923, which the bears have already come close to. The formation of a false breakdown, together with weak data on the US economy, will allow buyers to rehabilitate themselves and build up long positions with a return to the level of 1.1961. A breakout and test of this area from top to bottom will lead to forming a long entry point and a larger rally in the euro on the stop orders of sellers who were selling intraday today. This kind of scenario will allow the pair to return to the resistance area of 1.2003, where I recommend taking the profit. The longer-term target will be a maximum of 1.2033, where the moving averages play on the sellers' side. In the event of a further decline in the euro and a lack of buyer activity in the area of 1.1923, it is best to abandon long positions for a rebound to the test of a large minimum of 1.1880, or even lower - to update the support of 1.1839 in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day. Trading against a bear market is very dangerous.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Euro sellers continue to keep the market under their control, and good data on the US labor market will allow them to build up new short positions with the main goal of breaking through the next support of 1.1923. A test of this area from the bottom up, similar to the sales discussed above, will form a signal to open short positions to reach a new low of 1.1880. The further level of support is the area of 1.1839, where I recommend taking the profit. In the scenario of EUR/USD recovery in the second half of the day and weak bear activity at new local lows, before opening short positions, I recommend waiting for the formation of a false breakout in the area of the intermediate resistance of 1.1961. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from a large daily high in the area of 1.2003, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 8 noted a reduction in both long and short positions. It pointed to profit-taking and the exit of traders from the market before the important meeting of the European Central Bank, which resulted in no changes in monetary policy. Many were concerned about what would happen to the bond-buying program, but it remained unchanged, which did not allow euro buyers to keep the market under their control. The pair is now at risk of significantly adjusting their positions ahead of an important meeting of the Federal Reserve System, the results of which will set the direction of the market for the next few weeks. The dollar can only hope that this summer, the Federal Reserve will seriously talk about reducing the volume of bond purchases. If this does not happen, risk appetite will increase, and we will see a recovery in the euro. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions declined from 237,360 to the level of 232,103, while short non-profit positions also fell from the level of 128,038 to 124,890. The more the European currency falls, the more interest it will arouse among traders. The eurozone economy will demonstrate excellent growth rates in the summer period, which will affect the prospects for its recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. The total non-profit net position decreased from 109,322 to 107,213. The weekly closing price also fell from 1.22326 to 1.21907.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a continuation of yesterday's bear market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a further decline in the euro, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1905 will provide support. If the euro rises, the average border of the indicator 1.2003 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.