30.06.202111:38 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecasts for EUR/USD and GBP/USD: EU tells US to change trade policies. Meanwhile, euro and pound could rise by the end of June

Dollar rose against euro and pound on Tuesday, but today the situation may change dramatically if the Eurozone publishes better-than-expected data on inflation.

Another important news is the statements of the European Commission, which hints that US should change its approach in trading to help improve the US economy. Director General for Trade Sabine Weyand said the Biden administration should move away from the policies used by Donald Trump, as such controlled the sector unilaterally. She said everyone needs to integrate more deeply into the world trading system in a way that is acceptable to all parties.

However, Weyand must have forgotten that it was the United States that imposed trade conditions in the whole world, as it was them who had significant advantage over other developed countries. Hence, no matter how much Europeans would not like it, they have no control on the situation.

Currently, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo play key roles in the implementation of President Joe Biden's trade policies, which are mainly aimed at workers and the middle class. The administration is still reviewing its policy towards China, but many believe that it will not change. Most likely, the trade conditions inherited from former President Donald Trump, including tariffs on annual imports, will be retained.

On a different note, the European Commission reported that confidence in the Eurozone economy reached a 21-year high in June, thanks to the significant improvement in the service sector. This happened after governments lifted quarantine restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the data, economic confidence rose to 117.9 points, from 114.5 points in the previous month. Unsurprisingly, industrial confidence also hit a new all-time high of 12.7 points, while service confidence jumped to 17.9 points. Even the overall consumer sentiment improved to -3.3 points, which coincides with the projections of analysts.

Sadly, the momentum did not extend to German inflation, as Destasis said growth in the indicator slowed in June. CPI only grew by 2.3% year-on-year and by 0.4% month-over-month, while in the previous month it jumped by as much as 2.5% year-on-year and by 0.5% month-over-month. The EU-harmonized CPI also rose by only 2.1% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in France posted strong growth, climbing to a 15-month high in June. The index hit 102 points after a huge proportion of households deem the current period a good time to make large purchases. Accordingly, this raised the projection for retail sales in the coming months.

All this significantly affected EUR / USD, but today a lot will depend on 1.1925 because going above it will result in a hike towards 1.1980 and 1.2030. Meanwhile, dropping below 1.1880 will push euro down to 1.1850.

GBP

Pound hit a new low yesterday after the UK government imposed new restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Portugal and Spain have also introduced new rules for visitors from Britain, while Germany insists on a more coordinated response from the members of the European Union. Hong Kong also banned passenger flights from UK, which is bad news to airlines and tour operators.

On the bright side, house prices in UK rose 13.4% year-on-year in June, which is the highest record since November 2004. But on a monthly basis, it fell by 0.7%.

Today, a lot depends on 1.3870 because climbing above it will bring GPB / USD to 1.3920 and 1.3980. Meanwhile, dropping to 1.3820 will push pound down to 1.3770 and 1.3710.