11.08.202108:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 11. COT reports. Pound continues to decline ahead of US inflation report

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The pressure on the British pound continued yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about where you could make money. In the first half of the day, we did not reach the designated levels, so the focus was shifted to the US session. There, the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3841 resulted in creating a buy signal, after which the pound rose by 20 points at once, but at this the bulls' activity ended and the pair gradually slid back to 1.3841. There were no other signals to enter the market. Important fundamental statistics on the UK will not be released today, so once again the focus will be shifted to US data, but for now, the pound is likely to be under pressure in the first half of the day. The bulls should try to protect the support at 1.3808, to which the pair is gradually sliding after the breakout of the next local low in today's Asian session. Only if a false breakout at 1.3808 is formed, I advise you to open long positions. In this case, the target of the bulls will be the resistance at 1.3847, slightly above which the moving averages are, playing on the side of the bears and limiting the pair's upward potential. The breakthrough and test of this area from top to bottom will create another point to buy the pound with the expectation of a return to the high of 1.3883, where I recommend taking profits. Further resistance will come out at 1.3925. If the bulls are not active in the 1.3808 area, I advise you not to rush to buy. The best solution would be long positions immediately on a rebound from a larger support at 1.3767, or even lower - from a low like 1.3721 with the aim of an upward correction of GBP/USD by 20-25 points upward within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The initial task of the bears is to protect the resistance at 1.3847, just below which the moving averages, playing on the side of the bears', pass. The absence of important statistics in the first half of the day may help the bears' plans come true, but only the formation of a false breakout at 1.3847 will return pressure to the pound, which will create the first signal to open short positions with the goal of pulling down the pair to the next low at 1.3808. A breakthrough of this level with a reverse test from the bottom up will push GBP/USD even lower - to 1.3767 and 1.3721, the test of which will indicate that a strong bear market remains in the short term. I recommend taking profit around 1.3721. If the bears are not active around 1.3847, I advise you to postpone selling until the next major resistance at 1.3883, just below which is the upper border of the current descending channel formed on August 4 of this year. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakout is formed. Selling GBP/USD immediately on a rebound is possible from the local high in the 1.3925 area, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for August 3 showed a reduction in short positions, and a sharp rise in long ones. All this is explained by the results of the Bank of England meeting, where representatives again started talking that in the near future the attitude to monetary policy will change towards tightening. This brought back the demand for the British pound that slept all week, which made it possible to change the balance of power in the net position. The panic after the lifting of all quarantine restrictions in the UK has also receded, which allows the economy to continue to breathe deeply. There is little pressure on the pound right now, but it is mainly due to the strong performance in the US economy and labor market. However, I advise you to stick to the strategy of buying the pound every time it significantly drops, as the big players do. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose 41,194 to 43,119, while short non-commercial positions fell from 46,878 to 43,205, indicating continued buying from major players. As a result, the non-commercial net position remained negative and amounted to -86 against -5,684 a week earlier. Last week's closing price jumped from 1.3826 to 1.3891.

Indicator signals:

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market in the short term.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3815 will lead to a sharp decline in the pound. If the pair grows, the upper border of the indicator at 1.3860 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.