30.08.202108:43 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 30. COT reports. British pound rose after a virtual symposium at Jackson Hole. Bulls aiming for 1.3777

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

There were no signals on Friday morning, but the US session was more fun. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the trades. The formation of a false breakout in the area of resistance 1.3724 resulted in creating a good entry point for short positions in the pair, however, after the downward movement by 25 points, the pressure on the pound eased and everyone began to wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. As we can see, his statements led to a sharp rise in the pound to the high of 1.3765.

Today the technical picture has slightly changed. We also do not have any important fundamental reports on the UK, so we can assume that the pair will continue to rise in the first half of the day and the bulls will try to settle above the next weekly high at 1.3777. Only a test of this level from top to bottom will create a good entry point into long positions with the aim of reaching the 1.3809 high, with the prospect of updating 1.3841, where I recommend taking profits. The next target is 1.3876, from which about 70 points will remain to the monthly highs. In case GBP/USD falls in the first half of the day, the optimal scenario will be long positions from the level of 1.3741, but only if a false breakout is formed there. Moving averages, playing on the bull's side, also pass there. If the pressure on the pound persists, and the bulls are not active in the support area of 1.3741, the optimal scenario will be long positions from the 1.3704 low, but also only after the formation of a false breakout. It is possible to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound in the area of Friday's low of 1.3682, counting on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears' initial task is to protect the resistance at 1.3777, which was formed following the results of last Friday. The optimal scenario for opening short positions will be a false breakout at this level, which will weaken the pound's position and push the pair to the middle of the horizontal channel at 1.3741, which was clearly visible at the end of last week. Moving averages pass there, so a breakthrough and test of this area from the bottom up creates another entry point into short positions, which will push GBP/USD even lower - to 1.3704, and there it is close to the 1.3682 low, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are not active around 1.3777, I advise you to postpone selling until the next major resistance at 1.3809. I also recommend opening short positions from there only if a false breakout is formed. Selling GBP/USD immediately on a rebound is possible from a new weekly high in the 1.3841 region, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

I recommend that you familiarize yourself with:

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for August 17 showed that both short and long positions have been reduced. The fact that representatives of the Bank of England (BoE) are in no hurry to talk about changes in monetary policy affects the activity of traders. Last week's data on retail sales and inflation in the UK once again proved that no one will rush to raise interest rates until the end of 2022 - and this is a fairly long time horizon. This put pressure on the pound. But I have repeatedly noted that the lower the pound falls, the more active buyers of risky assets will begin to show themselves, betting on real changes in the BoE's monetary policy in the future. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions declined from 44,750 to 41,898, while short non-commercials declined from 37,680 to 37,274, indicating a near equilibrium in the balance of power. As a result, the non-commercial net position slightly decreased and reached 4,651, against 7,070 a week earlier. Last week's closing price remained practically unchanged at 1.3840 against 1.3846.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to pull the market to their side.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3730 will lead to a new wave of decline in the pound. Surpassing the upper border in the area of 1.3785 will lead to an increase in the pair.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.