15.02.202208:43 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 15. COT reports. Pound bulls are buying off any attempts by the pound to go below the 35th figure

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, several good signals were formed for the pound to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out the entry points. In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.3520 level and recommended making decisions on entering the market from it. The absence of important fundamental statistics led to another sell-off of the British pound in the first half of the day, which resulted from the circumstances - an extraordinary meeting of the Federal Reserve clearly supported dollar bulls and scared off traders with risky assets. However, the breakdown of the 1.3520 support took place without a reverse test from the bottom up – so I missed the entry point into short positions. We also did not reach the next support. The technical picture has completely changed in the afternoon. Three unsuccessful attempts to return bulls to the market during the US session and the formation of false breakouts around 1.3538 each time led to a fairly significant drop in GBP/USD from 20 to 30 points. Given that the results of the Fed's meeting were hidden from the public, there was no serious surge in volatility.

Before analyzing the technical picture of the pound, let's look at what happened in the futures market. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 8 showed a sharp increase in both short and long positions. The latter turned out to be much more, which led to a reduction in the negative value of the delta. However, the negative value still remained - this is a direct hint that bears control the market. It should be understood that this report already takes into account the results of the Bank of England meeting, at which interest rates were decided to be raised. But this did not provide much help to the pound, since everyone really understands that such changes in policy were made neither from a good life, but in the fight against high inflation. Given that the British economy is currently going through hard times and at any moment the pace of economic growth may seriously slow down - the increase in rates did not lead to a rapid increase in the British pound. The geopolitical events around Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Federal Reserve's decisive actions regarding future interest rates in March of this year - all this puts pressure on the bulls and is an additional deterrent to the bull market for GBP/USD. Some traders expect that the US central bank may resort to more aggressive actions and raise rates by 0.5% at once, rather than by 0.25% — this will become a kind of bullish signal for the US dollar. The COT report for February 8 indicated that long non-commercial positions increased from 29,597 to 44,709, while short non-commercial positions jumped not so much - from 53,202 to 53,254. This led to a sharp reduction in the negative non-commercial net position from -23,605 to -8,545. The weekly closing price rose from 1.3444 to 1.3537.

Several data on the UK labor market will be released today, which may set the pair's direction in the first half of the day. The primary task is to protect the intermediate support of 1.3521. This level was formed as a result of yesterday's confrontation and plays a very important role. In case the pair falls, only the formation of a false breakout at 1.3521 will give a signal to buy GBP/USD against the downward correction observed recently. Good indicators on the UK unemployment rate and changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits will lead to an increase in the pair in the first half of the day. If such a scenario is implemented, the bulls will target the resistance of 1.3570, which is yesterday's highs. A breakdown and test of this level from top to bottom will create another entry point and strengthen the bulls' position with continued growth to the highs: 1.3602 and 1.3640. A more distant target will be the 1.3683 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls during the European session and a lack of activity at 1.3521, the bulls may have serious problems. Therefore, it is best to postpone long positions to the level of 1.3477 – a test of this range will cancel all bulls' plans to keep trading in a wide horizontal channel. Therefore, forming a false breakout there will give an entry point based on the short-term growth of the pound. You can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3434, or even lower - from a low of 1.3394, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears are still in control of the situation, but it is not possible to achieve a real exit from the horizontal channel and turn the market to their side. Trading in the area of moving averages, which is currently being observed, is another headache, as this increasingly indicates the likely growth of the pound in the short term, rather than its further decline. The primary task is to protect the 1.3570 range. A breakdown of this range will negate bearish expectations. Only weak data on the labor market, and it is quite possible that we will get exactly such results, can play on the bears' side. The formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.3570 will provide an entry point into short positions with the goal of continuing the bearish correction and the subsequent decline of the pair to the area of 1.3477. We will have to fight hard for this level, as it is the last hope of the bulls for a rebound of the pair and a resumption of growth. A breakdown and a reverse test from the bottom up of 1.3477 will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders, which will dump GBP/USD to the lows: 1.3434 and 1.3394. A more distant target will be the 1.3361 area, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair grows during the European session and bears are weak at 1.3570, it is best to postpone short positions to the resistance of 1.3602. I also advise you to open short positions there only in case of a false breakout. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.3602, or even higher - from last week's high of 1.3640, counting on the pair's rebound down by 20-25 points within the day.

Indicator signals:

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the horizontal nature of the market.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakthrough of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3150 will increase the pressure on the pair. A breakthrough of the upper limit in the area of 1.3545 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.