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To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3429 and recommended making decisions on entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. Despite fairly good data on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector, which jumped in February above economists' forecasts, the British pound failed to catch on to the resistance of 1.3429. The formation of a false breakdown at this level led to the formation of excellent entry points into short positions, which resulted in a sell-off of GBP/USD in the morning support area of 1.3387, allowing about 40 points of profit to be fixed. A false breakout at 1.3387 and a buy signal were not long in coming. At the time of writing, the pair has gone up from the entry point for more than 30 points. From a technical point of view, the picture has not changed in the second half of the day, as in fact, the strategy has not changed. And what were the entry points for the euro this morning?
Recently, there has been a fairly good demand for the pound with its slightest decline - this indicates the presence of large players interested in buying it in the market. However, the actions of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine continue to put serious pressure on risky assets, including the pound, which limits its upward potential. The Russian military continues the operation on the territory of Ukraine and there is no talk of a ceasefire yet. The foreign exchange market is also coolly reacting to all events, but the demand for the US dollar is gradually returning. In the afternoon, although several fundamental statistics on the American economy are released, including reports on the ISM manufacturing index and changes in spending in the construction sector, however, they will be treated fairly mediocre. A sharp increase in indicators will lead to an even greater strengthening of the dollar, so it is better not to rush into buying risky assets. The key task of the bulls in the afternoon will be to protect the morning support of 1.3387. The best option, of course, will be purchases in case of a decline and the formation of a false breakdown there, but immediately after that, there should be an active growth of the pair, as it was during the morning session. It should be understood that this will be a repeat test of 1.3387 during the day, and if there is no rapid growth, and the US data is coming out very good, I advise you to postpone long positions to a minimum of 1.3345. Only the formation of a false breakdown there will give an entry point to long positions. You can buy the pound immediately on a rebound from 1.3308, or even lower - from a minimum of 1.3276, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within a day. To stop the bearish trend, bulls need to try to close the day above 1.3429, which will hit the sellers' stop orders. It will not be so easy to do this, since there is nothing good from the news background. A breakthrough and a test of 1.3429, even after very weak US data, will not lead to a sharp increase in the pound. If the breakdown of 1.3429 still takes place, we can count on further growth of GBP/USD in the area of highs: 1.3468 and 1.3510.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
The bears made themselves very clear by not allowing the pound to once again get above 1.3430 - a very bad sign for buyers. The intensification of military operations on the territory of Ukraine will lead to a further wave of decline in the pair. The formation of a false breakout at 1.3429 is the nearest resistance level, by analogy with the first half of the day, forms an excellent entry point into short positions, followed by a decline and a breakdown of support at 1.3387. The lack of activity on the part of buyers there, as well as a reverse test of this level from the bottom up, will give an additional entry point into short positions to fall to 1.3345 and 1.3308. A more distant target will be the 1.3276 area, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pair grows during the American session, as well as weak sellers' activity at 1.3429, it is best to postpone sales. The demolition of 1.3429 may lead to a sharp increase in the pound against the background of sellers' stop orders. In this case, I advise you to open short positions of GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.3468, or even higher - around 1.3510, counting on a correction within the day by 20-25 points.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for February 22 recorded a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. This again led to the return of the negative value of the delta - the market continues to maintain equilibrium even in the conditions of military operations. In the context of a tough geopolitical conflict that has affected almost the whole world, it is not surprising that short positions on risky assets are only beginning to increase. This report has not yet affected the sell-off that was observed at the end of last week, so it's too early to talk about real figures. It makes no sense to talk about what the policy of the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve System will be since, in the event of an aggravation of the military conflict, it will not matter at all. Now Russia and Ukraine have sat down at the negotiating table, and much will depend on the results of these meetings - there will be a lot of them. In the current conditions, it will not be too correct to consider the COT report, especially considering its secondary information for the trader. I advise you to be quite careful about risky assets and buy the pound only as the tense relations between Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the USA weaken. Any new sanctions actions against the Russian Federation will have serious economic consequences, which will affect the financial markets. The COT report for February 22 indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 50,151 to the level of 42,249, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 47,914 to the level of 48,058. This led to the formation of a negative value of the non-commercial net position from the level of 2,247 to the level of -5,809. The weekly closing price rose to 1.3592 against 1.3532.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates some confusion of traders with the further direction.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3429 will lead to a new wave of growth. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3390 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
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