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Analysis of transactions Thursday:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair on Thursday was no longer just moving indistinctly, it was in a total flat. In principle, everything was going to this. The volatility of the pair fell almost every day, there were practically no new important reports and events. And as for geopolitics, the market began to calm down a little, frankly hoping that a new escalation of the military conflict would not happen. As a result, today the volatility of the pair did not exceed 50 points, and there was no trend movement at all. As we remember, any trend is a trader's friend. Accordingly, and vice versa. At this time, a downward trend is formally forming, as the price has managed to break out of the ascending channel. However, the pair has not been able to continue moving down for three days, but also cannot gain a foothold above the level of 1.1019. The macroeconomic background of today did not affect the pair's movement. The indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of the EU and the USA, orders for durable goods in America did not provoke any reaction from traders. And if there was a reaction, it did not exceed 10-15 points.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair.
On a 5-minute timeframe, the technical picture of today looks as simple as possible. During the day, a single trading signal was formed, and the pair traded mostly sideways all day. And even then, that single signal was formed with an error of 2 points. That is, it could be worked out, but novice traders could skip it. But if they didn't miss it, they could earn about 30 points, which, with total volatility of 50 points, is a very good result. It so happened that it was after the rebound from the 1.0964 level that the pair showed the strongest and most trending movement of the day. The price almost managed to reach the target level of 1.1019, but in any case, the purchase transaction should have been closed manually later in the evening. So it turned out to be profitable anyway. Now the euro/dollar pair can trade in a side-channel for some time. It seems that the market will be waiting for new geopolitical events since there is nothing much to expect in macroeconomic terms right now.
How to trade on Friday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the pair has consolidated below the ascending channel, so we expect to see a continuation of the fall of the European currency. So far, there are obvious problems with this, despite the data received this week from the Fed and the ECB. Nevertheless, they have most likely already been worked out by the market, and it is waiting for new geopolitical events and news that may indeed appear in the near future. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow, it is recommended to trade by levels 1.0902, 1.0932, 1.0964, 1.1019, 1.1040, 1.1070, 1.1106. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set the Stop Loss to breakeven. On Friday, neither the States nor the European Union has scheduled any important events or the publication of the report. Nevertheless, now there is an information pause in the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, but it is unlikely that it will last very long, given that military operations are continuing. The market can react very sensitively to new data. If they indicate an escalation of the conflict or the involvement of other countries in it, this may cause new sales of the euro and the pound.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is calculated by the time it took to generate the signal (rebound or overcoming the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more trades were opened near a certain level on false signals, then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade transactions are opened in the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session when all transactions must be closed manually.
5) On a 30-minute TF, signals from the MACD indicator can be traded only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
What's on the charts:
Price support and resistance levels - the levels that are the targets when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
Red lines are channels or trend lines - that displays the current trend and show in which direction it is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line - an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a signal source.
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners to trade in the forex market should remember that every transaction cannot be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading for a long period.
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