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The GBP/USD currency pair traditionally tried to resume the downward movement on Thursday, but this time it was not possible to update the 37-year lows. The volatility was quite high during the day - about 100 points - and the movements often replaced each other. Moreover, if the euro really had reason to change direction often (the European Central Bank meeting, Lagarde's speech), then the pound did not. However, it almost completely copied the euro's movements, as is often the case in recent months. It is worth noting that not only the ECB meeting took place yesterday, but also Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in New York. Despite the fact that Powell did not report anything new to the markets, he nevertheless once again confirmed the immutability of the central bank's plans regarding monetary policy and the fight against inflation. Thus, the hawkish mood has been preserved, therefore, the US currency may continue to rise in price. It is firmly below the descending trend line, therefore, from a technical perspective, the downward trend continues.
But there was a problem with trading signals. The critical Kijun-sen line was a kind of pivot for the pair's movements today, so the price worked it out seven or eight times during the day. Each time, accordingly, a signal was formed. However, let us recall that when all signals are formed near the same line or level, this is a sign of a flat. Not surprisingly, most of these signals were found to be false. Moreover, the only level that the price could really reach is the level of 1.1442. From above, the nearest level was very far away. The first sell signal was closed at a loss, and the second made it possible to win back this loss, but the deal had to be closed manually. As a result, the day ended in zero profit.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound turned out to be as neutral as possible. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 1,200. The net position indicator has been growing for several months, but the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). Therefore, the growth of the British pound still cannot count. How can you count on it if the market sells the pound more than it buys? And now its fall has resumed altogether, so the bearish mood of major players in the near future can only intensify. The non-commercial group now has a total of 87,000 shorts and 58,000 longs open. The difference is not as terrifying as it was a few months ago, but it is still noticeable. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Moreover, COT reports are a reflection of the mood of major players, and their mood is influenced by the "foundation" and geopolitics. If they remain as weak as they are now, then the pound may still be in a "downward peak" for some time. Also remember that it is not only the demand for the pound that matters, but also the demand for the dollar, which seems to remain very strong. Therefore, even if the demand for the British currency grows, if the demand for the dollar grows at a higher rate, then we will not see the strengthening of the pound.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 9. The ECB raised the rate by 0.75%, the euro continues to remain in a coma.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 9. The British pound is floating around 37-year lows.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 9. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend on the hourly timeframe. Despite quite a growth yesterday and the day before that, it is clearly seen on the hourly timeframe that the price has only slightly moved away from its 37-year lows. Thus, the technical picture has not changed at all. We highlight the following important levels for September 9: 1.1411-1.1442, 1.1649, 1.1874. Senkou Span B (1.1669) and Kijun-sen (1.1504) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There are no major events or reports planned in either the UK or the US on Friday. However, the pair may continue to trade volatilely because it doesn't need fundamentals or macroeconomics in recent weeks or even months to show strong moves.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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