20.10.202214:08 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY reached 150.00 mark: Will there be currency intervention?

As the Japanese yen continues to weaken and USD/JPY hit 150.00 today, a new high since 1990, other major dollar currency pairs remain in tight ranges.

The dollar, meanwhile, and its DXY index show mixed intraday dynamics. As of writing, the dollar index (DXY) is near 112.77, near the closing price of yesterday's trading day. This is slightly above the middle of the range formed between the levels of 114.74 and 109.96. At the same time, the general upward dynamics of the dollar remains, pushing the DXY index towards more than 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The breakdown of the local "round" resistance levels 114.00, 115.00 will be a signal that the DXY index will return to growth.

Returning to the beginning of our review today, it is worth noting that the bulls are still afraid to push USD/JPY above the 150.00 mark. Recall that last month, the Bank of Japan intervened with the purchase of the yen when testing the USD/JPY pair at the level of 146.00, and today Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the willingness of the bank's management to conduct currency interventions in the market, if necessary, to support the rapidly weakening yen.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan is in a difficult situation, given the weak pressure from low inflation. If the BoJ is still taking a wait-and-see position, preferring to continue to pursue a cycle of super-soft monetary policy, then the Fed, on the contrary, is conducting a cycle of super-tight policy, preparing for another rate hike of 0.75% in November.

Market participants are almost not paying attention to the positive statistics coming from Japan. On Monday, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan presented data reflecting the positive dynamics of industrial production, which is important for the export-oriented economy of Japan. And late on Wednesday evening, the Japanese Customs Department presented statistics showing export volumes increased by 28.9% in September after an increase of 22.0% in the previous month (with a forecast of +27.1%). At the same time, Japan's trade deficit has decreased.

Also on Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that "it would be expedient to continue easing monetary policy." Kuroda expects the consumer price index (CPI) to not even reach 2% in fiscal 2023.

Thus, the widening divergence of curves reflecting the dynamics and direction of the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan creates prerequisites for further growth of USD/JPY. Investors prefer US bonds against Japanese ones (according to economists, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds may reach 4.50% this year, although the yield of Japanese government bonds rests on the central bank's limit of 0.25%), which also affects the dynamics of the dollar, bought for a cheap yen.

As of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading near the 149.80 mark, having rebounded from 150.00. In general, despite fears about a new possible currency intervention by the Bank of Japan, which the bank does not warn about, the USD/JPY pair maintains positive dynamics. A strong bullish impulse based on fundamental factors pushes it to new record highs.

And today, market participants will pay attention to the publication of the weekly US jobless claims report of the US Department of Labor. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.

At 23:30 (GMT), Japan's Bureau of Statistics is to release fresh data on consumer inflation. CPI is expected to rise. Theoretically, this should have a negative impact on USD/JPY. However, there is some degree of uncertainty as to how this will actually look, given the overall upward trend in USD/JPY and the significant weakness of the yen.

Volatility in USD/JPY may also increase at 17:30, 17:45, and 18:05 when the speeches of the Fed's FOMC members begin.