25.11.202207:36 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD. Overview for November 25. Will the dollar go on the offensive?

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend. Given that there was still a slight correction on the lower TF, if this conclusion is not immediately apparent, the correction is not even discernible on the 4-hour TF. Several candles were colored blue by the Heiken Ashi indicator, but the price could not even reach the moving average. Therefore, the upward trend is still present from a technical perspective. However, it's also possible that it will only happen in the upcoming days. First, it is crucial to maintain the upward trend that the European currency has established since its most recent local maximum. Second, the current fundamental environment makes it very challenging to predict a long-term increase in the euro's value. The market has sufficiently taken into account all of the favorable aspects of the euro. Thus, there is still only one element that guarantees the pair's continued growth. This is an approach.

In the context of a long-term downward trend, keep in mind that the euro currency was once unable to move by more than 400 points. As a result, it could not break through the Ichimoku lines on the 24-hour TF, which is the most logical thing to consider when discussing a major trend. But in the end, even after two years of the trend, it still succeeded. Because the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines are currently below the price, the euro currency can increase. It also lacks fundamental and macroeconomic drivers for such a movement, but keep in mind that the market can now easily lock in profits on short positions it has built up over the past two years. The pair's current upward trend may only be a "technical correction," but taken globally. This may explain why the growth of the euro has no foundation.

There was nothing particularly interesting in the Fed minutes.

This week's lack of significant fundamental events and macroeconomic publications presented the pair with significant issues. In actuality, traders could only "enjoy life" on Wednesday and engage in largely rational and conscious trading. However, over the weekend, we cautioned that not all scheduled macroeconomic reports are significant. They could only elicit movements of 10, 20, or 50 points. Of course, the Supreme Court of Great Britain's decision to forbid Scotland from holding an independence referendum could benefit the euro, but it was impossible to foresee this outcome. If you cross it out, the euro currency has no reason to increase this week. Nothing particularly interesting happened in the European Union, and business activity again decreased.

The United States also released business activity indices but they decreased as well. Only the report on long-term goods orders pleased traders, but the market rarely responded to it. By and large, the important events were all over, but the Fed protocol remained. The beginning of a slowdown in rate hikes in the United States has recently been a hot topic of discussion. The minutes made it abundantly clear that it might start to slow down as early as December, but what was novel or shocking about this information if nearly half of the members of the Fed's monetary committee had previously stated the same thing? Furthermore, who could have predicted a rate increase of 0.75% for the fifth time in a row? In this instance, it would have increased to 4.75%, and given the Fed's intention to "plant" the economy gradually, there was no question that tightening would not abruptly stop.

Therefore, with a target rate of about 5%, the Fed should have begun to slow down the tightening gradually. In this case, the rate must begin to decrease by December to reach the "target level." Otherwise, it will be impossible. The Fed protocol thus became another "passing" document for traders that contained no secret information. Forecasts can now be made more accurate in light of "technology." Only the fact that the previous local maximum could not be "taken" thus far supports the possibility of further dollar growth.

As of November 25, the euro/dollar currency pair's average volatility over the previous five trading days was 88 points, considered "average." As a result, we anticipate that the pair will fluctuate on Friday between 1.0322 and 1.0498. The Heiken Ashi indicator's return to the top indicates a potential downward movement continuation.

Nearest levels of support

S1 – 1.0376

S2 – 1.0254

S3 – 1.0132

Nearest levels of resistance:

R1 – 1.0498

R2 – 1.0620

R3 – 1.0742

Trading Suggestions:

The EUR/USD pair is still located above the moving average. In light of this, we should now consider long positions with targets of 1.0498 and 1.0620 if the Heiken Ashi indicator reverses its upward trend. The price fixing below the moving average line with targets of 1.0254 and 1.0132 will sales become significant.

Explanations of the illustrations:

Linear regression channels – help to determine the current trend. The trend is strong if both are directed in the same direction.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.

Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) – the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.