13.06.202315:21 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/JPY: in the global bull market

As we noted in our today's review of EUR/USD, the decision on the interest rate by the Federal Reserve will be published on Wednesday at 18:00 (GMT), while the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on Thursday at 12:15 (GMT).

At the end of the week, specifically on Friday, the Bank of Japan will hold its regular meeting on credit and monetary policy issues.

The Bank of Japan remains perhaps the only major central bank in the world that consistently implements an ultra-loose credit and monetary policy.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently confirmed that "the Bank of Japan will maintain the current easing of monetary policy." According to his words, the BoJ wants to avoid a sudden normalization of monetary policy, as it would significantly impact the markets, especially considering that "the global economy is slowing down, and further slowdown is expected."

Therefore, it is likely that the interest rate will be maintained at the current level of -0.1%, as well as the volumes of Japanese government bond purchases and the parameters of yield curve control.

Considering the preservation of the Bank of Japan's credit and monetary policy parameters, the yen remains weak.

In yen trading, the so-called carry-trade comes to the forefront, where a more expensive currency is purchased at the expense of a cheaper one.

In this regard, the dynamics of the EUR/JPY pair is of interest, taking into account the prospects of the monetary policies of the ECB and the Bank of Japan.

As of writing, the pair is trading near the 150.68 mark, accelerating its growth since the beginning of this week. The nearest resistance is located at last month's high of 151.05, and after breaking above it, the pair is likely to move towards the multi-year high of 151.60, reached in early May.

Overall, the dynamics of the pair indicate a positive sentiment among buyers. The pair is trading in the zone of long-term and global bull markets.

It is worth reminding that the Bank of Japan's decision on the interest rate will be published on Friday at the beginning of the Asian trading session.

Tomorrow at 23:50 (GMT), a block of important macro statistics for Japan will be published. A more than 3-fold increase in the country's trade balance deficit in May is expected, as well as a contraction of -8.0% (year-on-year) in machinery orders. This report is considered a leading indicator in the field of capital expenditure by enterprises, and a decline in the indicator also indicates a deterioration in business confidence.

For Japan's export-oriented economy with a strong manufacturing sector, a decline in machinery orders is a significant negative backdrop. The growth of the trade balance deficit, where export revenues decreased by -0.8% in May, confirms the negative trend in the Japanese economy. In these conditions, it is even less likely to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten its credit and monetary policy. Therefore, further weakening of the yen should be expected.