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US stocks came under selling pressure on Friday amid disappointing results from major US banks, capping a week packed with inflation data, changing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and rising geopolitical tensions.
All three leading indexes fell more than 1%, extending their losses for the week. The S&P 500 (.SPX) posted its biggest weekly decline since January, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) suffered its biggest loss since March 2023.
Mike Dixon, head of research at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina, said: "In light of the macroeconomic environment, sharply worsening inflation is putting pressure on companies, especially those preparing to report earnings this quarter. There is some nervousness about earnings expectations ".
The release of results from the three largest banks marked the unofficial start of the first quarter reporting season. For example, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the largest US bank by assets, reported profit growth of 6%, but its forecast for net interest income fell short of expectations, causing its share price to fall 6.5%. .
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) shares also fell after earnings fell 7% as net interest income fell due to weak borrowing demand.
Citigroup (CN) suffered losses due to severance benefits and deposit insurance costs, sending its stock price down 1.7%.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she expects several rate cuts this year but said inflation may take some time to return to target.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 475.84 points, or 1.24%, to 37,983.24. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fell 75.65 points, or 1.46%, to close at 5,123.41, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) fell 267.10 points, or 1.62%, to close at 16,175.09.
All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 index ended in the red, with the most significant percentage losses recorded in the commodities sector (.SPLRCM).
Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Intel (INTC.O) fell 4.2% and 5.2%, respectively, after reports that Chinese officials earlier this year ordered the country's largest telecom operator to withdraw from using foreign chips by 2027.
US Steel (X.N) shares fell 2.1% after shareholders voted to approve its proposed merger with Nippon Steel Corporation (5401.T).
On the New York Stock Exchange, the ratio of decliners to advancers was 4.19 to 1, while on the Nasdaq the ratio was 3.16 to 1, contributing to the overall decline.
The S&P 500 has hit 12 new highs over the past 52 weeks and 9 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite Index posted 35 new highs and 211 new lows.
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.67 billion shares, above the last 20 trading day average of 11.41 billion shares.
Some investors believe energy stocks could represent a hedge against U.S. inflation. Inflation this year has been higher than expected, threatening the sustainability of equities overall, undermining expectations for Federal Reserve action to cut rates in 2024.
"If inflation rises... hedging should be in commodities," said Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group.
The portfolios it manages focus on energy stocks, including companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N), as it has allocated more conservative capital allocations to the sector.
Energy sector leaders this year included Marathon Petroleum (MPC.N), up 40%, and Valero Energy (VLO.N), up 33%.
The economy will take center stage in the coming week as first-quarter earnings season begins, with reports expected from Netflix (NFLX.O), Bank of America (BAC.N) and Procter & Gamble (PG.N). Monthly US retail sales data released on Monday will provide a gauge of consumer behavior following the recent unexpectedly high inflation report.
Energy stocks rose as gains in the stock market moved beyond the technology companies that dominated last year. However, investor interest in non-commodity sectors could suffer if inflation expectations continue to rise and concerns about aggressive Fed policy increase.
Concerns about inflation have made markets more volatile in recent weeks. Beyond stocks, concerns about rising consumer prices have pushed the price of gold, a popular hedge against inflation, to all-time highs.
Energy stocks were also popular outside the United States.
Mining, steel and other resource stocks rose along with energy stocks.
"Investors are seeing that the economy is not really slowing ... while there are concerns about supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil," said Peter Tooze, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp.
Energy stocks are down nearly 5% in 2023, while the broader S&P 500 index is up 24%. However, their inflation protection capabilities received a boost in 2022. The S&P 500 energy sector jumped about 60% that year, providing a bright spot for a stock market that had suffered when the Fed raised interest rates in response to inflation hitting a 40-year high.
Last week, strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets reiterated their bullish outlook on energy stocks. In her review, RBC's Laurie Calvasina noted increasing geopolitical risks and "growing recognition that the economy is actually quite strong."
Analysts also point to relatively low valuations. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 Index trade at a trailing-12-month earnings multiple of 13 times forward earnings estimates, while the total S&P 500 index trades at a multiple of nearly 21 times, according to LSEG Datastream.
Oil prices could suffer if tensions in the Middle East ease or if global economic growth begins to slow, which could weigh on the outlook for energy stocks.
On the other hand, strong economic growth could boost corporate profits and attract investors to other sectors that have performed well this year, such as industrials and financials. Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to increase their earnings by 9% this year, according to LSEG IBES.
Martha Norton, Americas chief investment officer at Morningstar Wealth, noted that her firm owns shares of energy pipeline companies and other Master Limited Partnerships, or MLPs, that could serve as a hedge against stronger inflation.
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