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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded on Monday from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2690, but the bearish market sentiment didn't last long. Shortly after, the pair reversed in favor of the British pound, with bulls attacking again, pushing the quotes back into the 1.2690–1.2705 zone. Consolidation above this zone will once again allow bulls to target the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801. However, a close below 1.2690 would suggest a decline towards the 1.2611 level.
The wave situation changed on Friday. The latest upward wave broke the peak from June 4th, while a new downward wave managed to break the low of the wave from June 10th. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair has shifted to bearish. I cautiously regard conclusions about the beginning of a bearish trend, as bulls still exhibit considerable strength, and this week includes the UK inflation report and the Bank of England meeting. The emerging bearish advantage could easily be upended. Only below the 1.2690–1.2705 zone can bears expect more than just a simple correction.
The informational background on Monday was not negative for the US dollar, but, as we can see, bulls still managed to push the pair higher. Ahead of the Bank of England meeting and the UK inflation report, I would not favor bulls or bears, as everything can change in a minute. In my opinion, we need to observe. Without a close above or below the 1.2690–1.2705 zone, there are no clear signals. Tomorrow, inflation data for May will be released in the UK, and it could significantly slow down. However, this does not guarantee victory for the bears. Bulls may use this report to their advantage if it shows a figure above 2%.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the ascending trend line. Therefore, the process of declining quotes may continue toward the next level at 1.2620. A rebound from this level would allow bears to take a small pause, while consolidation below it would pave the way for a further decline toward the next level at 1.2450. There are no imminent divergences observed in any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" traders category turned even more bullish during the last reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 8,182 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 729 units. Bulls once again hold a solid advantage. The gap between the number of long and short contracts stands at 52,000: 110,000 versus 58,000.
However, the prospects for a decline remain excellent for the British pound. Graphical analysis has indicated several signals of a break in the bullish trend, and bulls cannot always sustain their attacks. Over the past 3 months, the number of long contracts has increased from 102,000 to 110,000, while the number of short contracts has risen from 44,000 to 58,000. Over time, major players will continue to unload their buy positions or increase their sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. However, the key factor this week will be the news flow from the UK.
News Calendar for the US and UK:
US - Retail Sales MoM (12:30 UTC).
US - Industrial Production MoM (12:30 UTC).
The economic events calendar includes two entries on Tuesday. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be moderate, but mainly in the second half of the day.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice:
Selling the pound will again be possible on a close below the 1.2788–1.2801 zone with a target of 1.2690–1.2705. Buying opportunities can arise on consolidation above the 1.2690–1.2705 zone, with a target in the 1.2788–1.2801 zone.
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