26.06.202412:12 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD. Review and analysis

For the second consecutive day today, the GBP/USD pair continues its sideways price consolidation. The absence of any significant buying requires some caution before any upward movement following the recent bounce from the lowest level since mid-May, reached last Friday in the zone of 1.2626.

A hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve earlier this month in the form of the idea of maintaining high interest rates at a higher level for a longer period supported policy expectations. However, markets still factor in a higher probability of a rate cut by the US central bank in September. Consequently, this keeps dollar bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. However, the dovish pause from the Bank of England, marked last week, limits the potential for the British pound and the currency pair to rise. Especially with the upcoming general elections in the UK scheduled for July 4.

From a technical perspective, the recent pullback from the three-month high reached on June 12 around the 1.2860 area halted near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The 50-day SMA coincides with the 100-day SMA and serves as a key support level. A convincing break below this level would be seen as a new trigger for bears and could drag the pair lower toward the round level of 1.2600 and beyond.

On the other hand, the round level of 1.2700 is an immediate barrier before the supply zone at 1.2725. Subsequent buying and sustained growth beyond it would indicate that the recent corrective decline has exhausted itself.

However, according to the RSI index, strength is currently lacking. But if the level of 50 is surpassed with an attempt to recover, bulls may accelerate towards the 1.2800 mark and move higher.