01.07.202414:30 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 1st (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, so I did not find suitable entry points into the market. Given how traders ignored all the morning statistics from Japan, the demand for the dollar remains very high, and the data from the US could help buyers in the market in the second half of the day. The figures for the US ISM Manufacturing Index might disappoint, and if there is no collapse in USD/JPY after that, suitable entry points to buy the dollar can continue the upward trend observed for quite some time. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 161.15 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 161.65 (thicker green line). Around 161.65, I will exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from this level). The pair is expected to continue its upward trend today, but only after strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 160.91 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 161.15 and 161.65.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 160.91 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 160.33, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to hold the daily high and weak US statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 161.15 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 160.91 and 160.33.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Projected price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Projected price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.