05.07.202414:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 5th (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The tests of the prices I indicated in the first half of the day did not take place. It's not surprising, as there was no normal volatility ahead of the important statistics release. The data from the Eurozone was essentially ignored, so now all attention is on the labor market statistics. The unemployment rate and changes in average hourly earnings will interest traders much less than the changes in the number of non-farm payrolls in the US. Whether the figures match the forecasts or deviate significantly from them is crucial. The market movement will depend on this. A significant deviation in favor of growth will lead to a strengthening of the dollar and a fall in EUR/USD. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenario #1 despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directional movement after the reports.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0835 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0879. At 1.0879, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro is unlikely after weak US labor market data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price at 1.0809 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0835 and 1.0879 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0809 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0770, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if there is an unsuccessful attempt to break beyond the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price at 1.0835 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0809 and 1.0770 can be expected.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the target price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – using overbought and oversold zones when entering the market is important.

Important: Beginner forex traders must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before releasing significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without setting stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.