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The test of the 1.2819 price occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound—especially considering it was already at a monthly high at the beginning of the week. The second test of 1.2819 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, which allowed scenario №2 for sale to be realized. However, by the time of writing the forecast for the second half of the day, a proper downward movement had not materialized. During the American session, the US consumer credit volume is unlikely to affect the pair's direction significantly, so buyers have every chance to continue the upward correction. However, it is important to understand that if there is a lack of active buying around the daily high again, the pound could fall much more sharply than in the first half of the day. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios №1 and №2.
Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.2827 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2860 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2860, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the level). One can count on the pound's growth today as part of the ongoing trend, but be cautious without important data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario №2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2806 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2827 and 1.2860.
Scenario №1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after breaking the 1.2806 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2776 level, where I will exit the sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the level). Sellers will manifest themselves after failing to secure the daily high and strong US statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario №2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2827 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2806 and 1.2776.
For beginner traders in the forex market, making market entry decisions very carefully is crucial. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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