09.07.202407:17 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Key events on July 9: fundamental analysis for beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

No macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday. Yesterday, the market found a reason to buy the euro and the pound, but such things don't last forever. Last week, both currency pairs showed quite a significant upward movement, so it would be good to see some bearish correction this week. Theoretically, the speeches of Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell and the release of the US inflation report could provoke the dollar's rise. But in reality, the market rarely considers Powell's hawkish stance and the correspondence of the actual value to the forecasts. Therefore, it would be pleasant to see if these events support the dollar, but the greenback could also use some correction before the US inflation data is released.

Analysis of fundamental events:

The main fundamental event for today is Powell's speech in the US Congress. His speech may be found on the official Fed website earlier than the scheduled time, but congressmen will probably ask him questions, to which Powell will have to respond. The dollar's course on Tuesday will depend on these answers. There will also be speeches by Bank of England representatives Cleland and Truran, European Central Bank member Cipollone, and Fed officials Barr and Bowman. Therefore, the market may receive a lot of information today, but the question remains as to whether it will be important.

General conclusions:

There is one significant event on Tuesday. Most likely, both pairs will try to correct lower, but volatility will be low once again. Much will depend on Powell's rhetoric. If the market finds dovish signals in his speech, the dollar may continue to fall today.

Basic rules of a trading system:

1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.

2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.

3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.

5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.

6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.

The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.

Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.

Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.