16.07.202415:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on July 16th (analysis of morning deals)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0885 level and planned to make market entry decisions from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and understand what happened. A decline and a false breakout at this level led to an excellent entry point for buying the euro, resulting in a rise of over 20 points for the pair. The technical picture for the second half of the day has not been revised.

To open long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:

Data from the Eurozone disappointed with weak figures, but euro buyers took advantage of the correction and managed to defend the 1.0885 support, which should be emphasized again in the second half of the day. It is possible that after the release of US retail sales data, the import price index, and the NAHB housing market index, demand for the dollar will return, leading to another decline and the third test of 1.0885 in the last few days. For this reason, only forming a false breakout will be a suitable point to enter long positions aiming for a recovery in the euro towards the resistance of 1.0919, formed based on yesterday's results. A breakout and upward update of this range will strengthen the pair with a chance to rise to the resistance of 1.0939. The furthest target will be the maximum of 1.0960, where I will take profits. Testing this level will allow the bullish trend to continue. If EUR/USD falls and there is no activity around 1.0885 in the second half of the day, I will only consider entering after a false breakout around the next support at 1.0864. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.0840 low, targeting an upward correction of 30-35 points intraday.

To open short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:

Sellers did what they could, taking advantage of weak data, but it was not enough to break below 1.0885. If US retail sales data disappoint, the euro will recover to around 1.0919, and only after forming a false breakout can a suitable entry point for short positions be found, targeting a drop to the 1.0885 support, where the moving averages supporting the bulls are located. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from the bottom up, will bring pressure back on the euro and provide another selling point with movement towards the 1.0864 low, where I expect to see more active euro buyers. The furthest target will be the 1.0840 area, where I will take profits. Testing this level will significantly harm the bullish market. If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day, developing a bullish trend, and bears are absent at 1.0919, which is possible, buyers will achieve further growth for the pair. In that case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0939. I will also sell there, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0960, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 9, there was a reduction in both short and long positions. The bullish market needs a break. Powell's speech could influence the pair's reversal, helping to determine the summer direction of the dollar, as well as US retail sales data, whose growth will renew interest in the US dollar. For this reason, the US dollar should not be written off yet. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 3,001 to 164,369, while short non-commercial positions fell by 1,913 to 173,888. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,902.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages considered by the author are on the hourly H1 chart, differing from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0885 will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions: Represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.