18.07.202408:56 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 18, 2024

Despite an excellent industrial production data, with growth rates accelerating from 0.3% to 1.6%, the dollar still weakened somewhat. What's even more intriguing is the fact that this happened long before the industrial production data was published. And even before the eurozone inflation data was released. Although this certainly couldn't have influenced anything, as figures completely matched estimates. Apparently, this is how the market prepares for when the Federal Reserve draws closer to an interest rate cut. The market is confident that this will happen as early as September. However, today, market participants will focus on the European Central Bank's policy meeting. And although the ECB's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, given the inflation dynamics and extremely weak macro data, ECB President Christine Lagarde may still hint at another rate cut. Therefore, the disparity in interest rates between the dollar and the euro could grow even more in favor of the greenback. As a result, the dollar could retreat to the levels seen at the start of yesterday's trading.

As the volume of long positions rose when EUR/USD settled above the 1.0900 level, the price moved towards the main psychological level of 1.1000.

On the 4-hour chart, the RSI locally reached the overbought zone, but it did not hit any of the critical levels. For this reason, buying volumes still have the potential to rise.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the quote's movement.

Outlook

In case the pair rises further, the quote may reach the psychological level, but it is important to take note of the euro's overbought status. Thus, the pair could pull back or become stagnant within the boundaries of the psychological level. An increase in buying volumes may take place after the price settles above the 1.1050 level.

The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the short-term and intraday periods, indicators are providing an upward signal.