19.07.202412:49 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: XAU/USD. Review and analysis

Today, the price of gold continues its decline

The US dollar, recovering confidently from the previous day's four-month low and slowly rising, has become the main factor dragging the commodity down for the third consecutive day.

In addition, some profit-taking, especially after the recent rise of more than 6.5% since the beginning of the current month, further contributes to the decline. However, the potential for further decline is limited. Investors are likely convinced that the Federal Reserve will start lowering borrowing costs in September, with the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. This keeps the yield on US Treasury bonds defensive and limits the appreciation of the US dollar.

However, the tendency to avoid risk amid current market conditions could support gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and demand from central banks should help limit significant declines in the price of non-yielding yellow metal.

From a technical perspective, any further decline will find decent support around $2413-2412, just before the round level of $2400. This is followed by a horizontal breakthrough point at $2390-2388, triggering technical selling in case of a decisive break. The precious metal will then accelerate its decline to test the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is currently near the $2358-2357 area. A sustained decline below this level will expose the 100-day SMA near the $2311 zone, with intermediate support around $2330.

On the other hand, the Asian session high of around $2445 now serves as an immediate obstacle, above which the yellow metal may rise to $2469-2470 – the high of the American session. Given that the oscillators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, bulls may attempt to retest the historical high around $2483-2484 and reach the psychological mark of $2500.