03.09.202408:45 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 3, 2024

Due to the holiday in the United States, the market situation remained unchanged. Strangely enough, this stagnation might continue today; this time, it will be due to an empty economic calendar. The final data on the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is unlikely to have any significant impact. Even if it differs somewhat from the preliminary estimates, its influence will likely be more symbolic, as the market has already largely priced in this factor. The only thing that might affect the situation is possible statements from representatives of the European Central Bank. After all, inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down noticeably faster than in the United States. Therefore, the ECB might hint at a slightly more aggressive easing of monetary policy, which, in turn, could strengthen the U.S. dollar's position. However, such a development is unlikely since central banks do not make decisions based on data alone. They are more interested in the trend over time, and the recent decline in inflation in Europe may be temporary.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050, indicating a sustained corrective cycle from the local high of the medium-term trend.

In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone but remains in the sellers' area between 30 and 50.

Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point downward, which corresponds to the corrective phase.

Expectations and Prospects

Stabilizing the price below the 1.1050 mark is sufficient for the next stage of the decline. However, this will only result in a local shift of the support point toward the lower area of the psychological level.

The complex indicator analysis points to a corrective price move in the short-term and intraday periods. Indicators point to an upward trend in the medium term.