05.09.202416:29 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on September 5 (Review of Morning Trades)

For opening long positions on GBP/USD:

There is still a lot of data ahead, so the pound's upward potential is far from exhausted. Everything will depend on the ADP employment data and initial jobless claims figures from the U.S. Pressure on the pair is expected only if the data is very strong, including the ISM services index. I plan to take action after a false breakout forms around the 1.3127 support, which will provide an entry point for long positions, aiming for a return to 1.3171. A breakout and a subsequent retest from above to below this range, similar to yesterday's scenario amid weak data, will increase the chances of developing an upward trend. This will trigger the removal of sellers' stop orders and offer a good entry point for long positions, targeting 1.3221. The farthest target will be 1.3260, where I will look to take profit. If GBP/USD declines and there is no bullish activity around the 1.3127 level in the second half of the day, especially with moving averages in play, pressure on the pair will increase. This will lead to a decline and a retest of the next support at 1.3088, nullifying buyers' plans. A false breakout at this level will be the only condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.3051 level, targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

For opening short positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers are not particularly active, so the main focus remains on holding the 1.3171 resistance level. In case of weak data, the primary goal for the bears will be to defend this resistance, where a false breakout will signal an opportunity for opening new short positions against the trend, targeting a correction and a retest of the 1.3127 support. A breakout and a downward retest of this range will weaken buyers' positions, leading to stop-loss hunting and opening the path to 1.3088, where I expect more active actions from major players. Testing this level will bring the pair back into a short-term sideways channel. The furthest target will be around 1.3051, where I will take profit. In the event of GBP/USD rising and no bearish activity at 1.3171 in the second half of the day, which is more likely, buyers will strengthen their initiative. As a result, bears will have no choice but to retreat to the 1.3221 resistance level. I will look to sell there only in the case of a false breakout. If no downward movement occurs at this level either, I will seek short positions on a rebound around 1.3260, but only targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for August 27, there was a sharp increase in long positions and a slight increase in short ones. Traders are confident that U.S. interest rate cuts will have a significantly stronger impact than similar actions by the Bank of England, which is why market forces are increasingly shifting toward pound buyers, whose numbers have been growing recently. This week, a lot of important U.S. statistics will be released, which could further weaken the dollar's position and bring back a bullish trend for GBP/USD. Employment-related reports will be of particular importance. In the latest COT report, long non-commercial positions jumped by 26,529 to 152,163, while short non-commercial positions rose by 4,109 to 62,323. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 2,549.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages:

The trade is taking place above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.3127 will act as support.

Indicator descriptions:

• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages): Fast EMA period 12, Slow EMA period 26, SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders — speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.