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Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3140 price level coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of this level shortly after occurred when the MACD was in the oversold zone. This confirmed an optimal entry point for buying the pound, resulting in a 30-point rise. Data on the PMI for the UK construction sector helped the pound stay afloat during the first half of the day. During the U.S. session, we expect reports on ADP employment change and the number of initial jobless claims. If they come in below economists' forecasts, you can sell the dollar and buy the pound again, similar to yesterday's scenario. However, if the data exceeds expectations, risk assets may come under additional pressure. Reports on the ISM services index and the composite PMI will be secondary. Regarding intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3173 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.3205 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3205, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 point movement downward from the level). The pound's rise today can be expected if U.S. data underperforms. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3145 price level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the levels of 1.3173 and 1.3205.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.3145 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3111 level, where I plan to close sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point movement upward from the level). Sellers will likely gain strength if the U.S. economic data comes in strong. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3173 price level when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the levels of 1.3145 and 1.3111.
Chart Analysis:
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must make market entry decisions cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you're not using money management and trading large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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