12.09.202413:42 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/JPY. Review and Analysis

Today, the EUR/JPY pair is showing positive momentum ahead of the ECB's decision, supported by the moderate weakness of the Japanese yen as it recovers from a monthly low.

It is expected that following its September monetary policy meeting, the ECB will announce a 25 basis point rate cut. This would mark the second adjustment in the current easing cycle. However, attention should remain on the updated economic forecasts. Additionally, comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde during the post-meeting press conference are expected to impact the common currency and determine the short-term trajectory of the EUR/JPY pair.

Ahead of the Eurozone central bank's upcoming events, weak PPI (Producer Price Index) data from Japan have undermined the hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, triggering some selling of the Japanese yen. In fact, Japan's core PPI in August declined by 0.2%, and the annual rate dropped more than expected, from 3.0% in July to 2.5%.

At the same time, the positive tone in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency, which has lent support to the EUR/JPY pair.

However, comments from Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura confirmed that the central bank is likely to further raise borrowing costs by the end of the year. This underscores the significant divergence between the two central banks, lending some support to the Japanese currency.

Therefore, it may be wise to wait for stronger follow-through buying pressure before confirming that the EUR/JPY cross has bottomed out.

Moreover, from a technical standpoint, since the daily chart oscillators remain in negative territory but have not yet reached oversold levels, there is no confirmation that the pair has reached a bottom.