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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test at 1.3199 coincided with when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 1.3161, allowing for about 40 pips of profit. U.S. data exerted strong pressure on the pair, leading to an active pound sell-off ahead of today's important data. In the first half of the day, figures are expected on the UK Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index. The pound is likely to rise if the reports come in higher than economists' forecasts—especially regarding core inflation. Otherwise, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve meeting. We will discuss this in more detail in the afternoon forecast. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3171 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth at the level of 1.3207 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 1.3207 level, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). You can anticipate a rise in the pound based on a corrective move, but high inflation figures are required. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3144 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3171 and 1.3207.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the 1.3144 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3101 level, where I plan to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Selling the pound is only advisable after a failed attempt to hold at the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3171 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3144 and 1.3101.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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