25.09.202412:11 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold reached a new all-time high of approximately $2,655.

Gold set this record high today in the vicinity of $2,655. The slightly overbought conditions indicated on the daily RSI chart have prompted some profit-taking, exerting pressure on the precious metal amid a modest increase in the U.S. dollar.

However, any corrective decline in gold prices, combined with expectations of future Fed rate cuts, may bolster the yellow metal. Additionally, the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside political uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the November presidential elections, may help mitigate the downward risks for gold prices.

Traders should await further indicators of Fed rate cuts before establishing new directional positions. Consequently, the focus remains on upcoming speeches by influential FOMC members and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which are scheduled for Thursday. Furthermore, Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will influence demand for the dollar and impact XAU/USD volatility.

From a technical standpoint, the recent breakthrough of the short-term upward channel and subsequent upward movement support the prospects for additional gains. Nonetheless, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart has climbed above 70, signaling slight overbought conditions. Therefore, it would be prudent to await brief consolidation or a modest retreat before initiating new long positions.

At the same time, any corrective decrease is likely to attract some buying interest and find substantial support near the breakout point of the ascending channel resistance, around the $2,625 mark. The next support level is at the round figure of $2,600, a breach of which could trigger technical selling, pushing the price towards the $2,575 level, then to the $2,560 level, and further down to the former resistance now turned support between $2,532 and $2,530.