30.09.202414:33 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/JPY: Overview and Analysis

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Today, the GBP/JPY pair is attracting some buyers amid the decline. However, despite the pair climbing to the 191.00 level, the fundamental factors call for caution among traders with a bullish outlook.

The Japanese yen is weakening following comments from Japan's new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba. He stated that to support the fragile economic recovery, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy should remain accommodative.

Additionally, news that the new Prime Minister plans to hold general elections on October 27, combined with mixed economic data from Japan, has led to a weakening of the yen, which in turn is providing support for the GBP/JPY pair.

On the other side, the British pound is benefiting from restrained demand for the U.S. dollar and expectations of a slower rate-cutting cycle by the Bank of England compared to the Federal Reserve in the U.S. This factor is also supporting the GBP/JPY pair. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates again by the end of this year could help limit any significant losses for the yen.

Moreover, the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is expected to benefit the safe-haven Japanese currency, which could help cap gains in the GBP/JPY pair. On Sunday, Israel expanded its confrontation with Iranian-backed forces, launching aggressive airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This has fueled concerns that the conflict could spiral out of control and trigger a full-scale war in the region.

From a technical perspective, earlier this month, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed below the critical 200-day SMA, forming a bearish crossover on the daily chart. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-up buying before positioning for a resumption of the recent recovery from the monthly low, especially in the absence of any significant economic releases that could influence the market today.

Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet fully exited positive territory.

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