01.10.202406:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on October 1? An Overview of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There will be a few macroeconomic events on Tuesday. Low-significance manufacturing PMI data for September's second estimates will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. These data are unlikely to provoke any market reaction. The Eurozone will publish its inflation report for September, which is a much more significant report. However, a sharp decline in the euro after this report is unlikely. The European Central Bank has already started the cycle of monetary policy easing, so the rate at which inflation is falling is no longer as crucial. Moreover, the market, in any case, is not eager to sell the euro, as we saw yesterday with the German inflation report.

Today, the ISM Manufacturing Index and the JOLTs report on job openings in the US will be released. Both reports are important, and the market will look for hints to start a new wave of selling the US dollar. As we saw yesterday, even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech didn't particularly help the dollar.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, a series of speeches by Fed representatives stand out, along with a speech by Isabel Schnabel. Last week, several FOMC officials spoke in favor of a 0.5% rate cut in November, but Powell and some of his colleagues stated that such aggressive easing is not necessary. In any case, everything will depend on the incoming macroeconomic data, and it's not advisable to discuss the size of the rate cut five weeks from now. Nevertheless, the tone of other FOMC representatives will give an idea of the overall stance of the monetary committee.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the new week, the euro may remain within a limited price range between 1.1091 and 1.1191. Nothing seems to hold back the pound sterling, and it rises much more frequently than the euro and more than the fundamental and macroeconomic background would suggest. Therefore, the pound sterling may continue its upward movement. In the US reports, the market will again look for any excuse to justify new dollar sales.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1) Signal Strength: The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.

2) False Signals: If two or more trades are opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.

3) Flat Market: In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.

4) Trading Timeframe: Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which they should be closed manually.

5) MACD Indicator Signals: In the hourly time frame, it is preferable to trade based on MACD signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.

6) Close Levels: If two levels are located too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be considered as a single support or resistance area.

7) Stop Loss: Once the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at the breakeven point.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.

Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.