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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 142.83 price occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair moved up by about 50 pips, but I did not reach the target level of 143.49. Good figures on retail sales offset yesterday's weak reports on Japan's industrial production. Despite the unemployment rate in Japan dropping to 2.5%, Japan's Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50-point mark, indicating a contraction in activity, which caused the yen to fall, continuing the bullish dollar market from yesterday. However, it's worth remembering that we are in a bearish trend, and the higher the pair goes, the greater the chances of big sellers returning to the market. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 144.52 (green line on the chart) with a target level of 145.38 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 145.38 level, I plan to exit the buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). You can count on the pair's growth today only within the framework of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.16 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal in the market upwards. Growth toward the opposite levels of 144.52 and 145.38 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking through the 144.16 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.46 level, where I plan to exit the sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). The pressure on the pair will continue within the framework of the ongoing bearish market for the dollar. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.52 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 144.16 and 143.46 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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