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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 145.24 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy the dollar. Despite this, strong U.S. labor market data kept big players in the market, pushing USD/JPY higher and higher. Today's weak reports on the Composite PMI and services PMI for Japan, which turned out worse than economists' forecasts, triggered another yen sell-off and dollar purchases, strengthening the pair. In addition, with ongoing geopolitical tensions around the world, the dollar is expected to rise, so be cautious with selling, even at the current highs. Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point at 146.92 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 147.53 (thicker green line on the chart). At 147.53, I plan to exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level. The pair's rise today is expected only as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and start its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.45 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 146.92 and 147.53 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 146.45 level (red line on the chart) is tested, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 145.95 level, where I plan to exit the sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will persist as part of the bearish market for the dollar. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.92 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 146.45 and 145.95 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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