04.10.202416:18 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 4th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 146.35 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the bullish potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and chose to wait calmly for the U.S. statistics. Only strong data on unemployment in the U.S. and growth in non-farm employment will lead to a new wave of strengthening for USD/JPY. Otherwise, the pair may decline quite sharply. Regarding my intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenario No. 1, even despite the MACD indicators, as I expect a strong surge in market volatility.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 146.66 (green line on the chart), with a target growth to the level of 147.74 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.74, I will exit my purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from that level). An increase in the pair today can only be expected after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 146.40 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's bearish potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 146.66 and 147.74 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 146.40 is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 145.65, where I will exit my sales and also immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Selling pressure will return in case of weak statistics from the U.S. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 146.66 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's bullish potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 146.40 and 145.55 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profits can be manually taken, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profits can be manually taken, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to focus on the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.