07.10.202405:55 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on October 7? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. The only noteworthy report is the retail sales data in the European Union. This is not the most important report, so its market reaction might be very mild. Overall, the euro and the pound were declining last week, so the market might lean toward a correction in the coming week (especially on days without macroeconomic and fundamental drivers). This is particularly true for the British pound, which in 2024 has been falling against the dollar much less frequently than the euro.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Monday, the only significant fundamental events are speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic. This will be interesting because these Fed officials might comment on Friday's unemployment and Non-Farm Payroll reports. We are likely to hear statements suggesting that aggressive monetary policy easing by the Fed at the next meeting won't be necessary. This information could support the US dollar. The labor market showed good results in September, and unemployment levels decreased. This could continue to support the dollar over the coming weeks.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the new week, the euro and pound might begin a correction. The US dollar could see its sixth consecutive day of growth only if there is a hawkish tone from Kashkari and Bostic. However, both will speak late in the evening, so there should be no obstacles to a correction in the currency pairs during the day. At the same time, caution is advised during the European session, as the European market may also respond to Friday's US data.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes for the signal to form (bounce or break through the level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trading positions should be opened during the period from the start of the European session until the middle of the US session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. In the hourly time frame, it is recommended to trade based on MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
7. Upon passing 15-20 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.

Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.