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The narrowing gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris by 0.9% in the latest poll and ongoing tensions in the Middle East weakened the euro's position by 0.49% yesterday amid an almost empty economic calendar this week. The U.S. stock index S&P 500 fell by 0.18%, while the "fear index" VIX rose by 1.89%. For the same reasons, precious metals, oil, and government bond yields are rising. Market anxieties are increasing and are expected to peak between November 5th and 7th.
On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator has finally shown signs of life and indicates a potential upward reversal. Considering external factors, the euro is forming a reversal range between 1.0777 and 1.0882. A breakout above 1.0882 would open the next target at 1.0950 as the nearest resistance level. A drop below 1.0777 could lead the euro toward 1.0724. Future developments will largely depend on the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections.
On the four-hour chart, the price and oscillator have formed a convergence. If the price breaks through the MACD line at 1.0846, it could trigger an attack on the 1.0882 level. A break below yesterday's low would neutralize the convergence and continue to pull the price towards the 1.0777 support. The probabilities of further growth or decline are currently equal.
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