25.10.202413:09 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen has slowed its recovery due to uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's actions. According to economic data, business activity in Japan's manufacturing and services sectors declined in October. Additionally, a decline in core inflation in Tokyo below the Bank of Japan's 2% target softens expectations of further rate hikes in 2024, thereby putting pressure on the national currency. Moreover, political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general elections, set for Sunday, adds to the pressure. Positive risk sentiment further undermines demand for the safe-haven yen.

Additionally, the emergence of some buying interest in the U.S. dollar during declines, supported by expectations of a more gradual rate reduction by the Federal Reserve, is pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the psychological level of 152.00. However, recent verbal warnings by Japanese authorities are deterring bears from opening new positions, thus limiting the currency pair's movements.

From a technical perspective, the pair will find solid support around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the convergence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Following that is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline seen between July and September. This level should serve as a key pivot point, and a decisive break below it would shift the bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, momentum above the 152.00 mark could extend further towards yesterday's high. Some additional buying could allow the USD/JPY pair to regain the psychological level of 153.00, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 153.20. If this level is breached, the pair could pave the way for further gains towards the round level of 154.00 and the supply zone around 154.30. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart have exited overbought conditions and are now in positive territory.