05.11.202405:01 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Forecast for EUR/USD on November 5, 2024

Markets have been preparing for today's U.S. elections as best they could, resulting in a bit of chaos. Closed positions on major instruments spark further declines, especially evident in stock indices. Harris now leads with a clear advantage, holding 276 electoral votes to Trump's 246. However, investors aren't rushing to react to this outcome, likely anticipating a speculative move.

If that's the case, the euro might spike toward the target level of 1.0950 or even higher, up to 1.1010, aiming to push out dollar buyers banking on a Trump victory. Afterward, the dollar could resume its strength, not because of a Harris win but due to the U.S. strategy of strengthening its national currency. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory, signaling a greater likelihood of the price heading toward the nearest resistance at 1.0950 rather than the nearest support at 1.0777.

However, on the four-hour chart, a divergence has formed between the price and the Marlin oscillator, with Marlin already pushing below the zero line. The price may aim to close the gap, after which it could encounter the MACD line at 1.0828. The subsequent price increase could be substantial if it bounces off the MACD line.

Questions surround the correlation between the euro and the stock market. Visually, the S&P 500 might start declining today, with a target level of 5392 (the July 25 low). This situation presents four possible scenarios for the euro today and tomorrow: two main independent scenarios and two additional "complex" ones tied to the stock market. Our strategy is to observe and wait.