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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0741 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 50 pips, though it did not quite reach the target level of 1.0674. In the second half of the day, traders didn't need statistics to sell the euro further. The victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election was enough to weaken the positions of risk assets. Today, in the first half of the day, pressure on the euro may persist due to anticipated weak data on Germany's industrial production and a decline in Eurozone retail sales, feared by many economists. Dovish remarks from European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson and ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel are also expected to weigh on the euro, as a more aggressive interest rate cut in the Eurozone can no longer be ruled out. For the intraday strategy, I plan to focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price area of 1.0759 (green line on the chart) with a target at the 1.0807 level. I plan to exit the market at 1.0807 while also opening a sell position, expecting a 30-35-pip pullback from the entry point. It is hardly possible to count on euro growth today in the first half of the day. At most - an upward correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0723 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0759 and 1.0807.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the 1.0723 level (red line on the chart) is reached. The target is the 1.0674 level, where I plan to exit the market and open a buy position immediately (expecting a 20-25 pip rebound from the level). Pressure on the pair will likely remain, so selling is most effective on corrections. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0759 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. Declines can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0723 and 1.0674.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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