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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The price test 1.0644 coincided with when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero level, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.0644 occurred when the MACD was already in the oversold area, allowing Scenario #2 for buying to materialize. However, a significant upward movement did not develop. After a 15-pip correction, the pair came under renewed pressure.
Today, the market will be guided in the first half of the day by data on Germany's Consumer Price Index, the ZEW Business Sentiment Index, and the ZEW Current Conditions Index for Germany and the Eurozone. Weak results will likely lead to a weaker euro and another decline toward new monthly lows. Strong data could temporarily halt the pair's downward trend. For the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area around 1.0654 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.0697. At 1.0697, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pips movement from the entry point. It's unlikely that the euro will achieve significant growth during the first half of the day—at best, it may experience a short-term upward correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0623, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0654 and 1.0697 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0623 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0582, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction. Selling pressure could return anytime, but selling from as high as possible is better. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0654, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0623 and 1.0582 can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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