12.11.202413:48 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen is struggling to find support, trading between lackluster gains and minor losses against the U.S. dollar. It appears that market participants believe Japan's political landscape may hinder further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Moreover, the BoJ's October meeting summary revealed a division among policymakers on the prospect of another rate hike.

Additionally, expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies may drive inflation higher, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy, continue to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields. This is another factor undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has climbed to its highest level since early July.

However, Japanese authorities could potentially intervene in the forex market to stabilize the national currency and limit its losses.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of the July to September decline) favor the bulls. Furthermore, daily chart oscillators remain firmly in positive territory and are well below overbought levels, supporting a short-term bullish outlook for the pair.

As a result, further movement toward the multi-month peak near 154.70 appears plausible. Beyond this level is the significant psychological barrier at 155.00, and breaking it could accelerate momentum toward intermediate resistance at 155.65–155.70, ultimately targeting the round figure of 156.00.

On the other hand, the breakout point at the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 153.39 now serves as immediate support, followed by the 153.00 round level and horizontal support at 152.60. Any further short-term correction is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity near the 152.00 round level, capped by the 200-day SMA. Below this lies last week's swing low, located near the 151.27 area.

A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pulling the USD/JPY pair toward the 151.00 psychological level and potentially lower.