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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair consolidated below the support zone of 1.2788–1.2801 and the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.2752 on Tuesday. As of Wednesday morning, the bulls appear hesitant to mount a counterattack. Consequently, a decline below 1.2752 may resume at any moment, targeting levels of 1.2709 and 1.2665. Consolidation above 1.2752 could signal potential growth for the pound.
The wave structure is clear and straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the high of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave broke through two previous lows. This confirms that the pair is still forming a bearish trend. For signs of the bearish trend's conclusion, the pair would need to return to the 1.3000 level and close above the last peak.
On Tuesday morning, the British pound faced another setback. The UK unemployment rate for September rose to 4.3%, which came as a surprise to traders. This report provided bears with the necessary momentum to sustain selling pressure on the British currency.
Today, attention shifts to a critical US inflation report, which will determine the pair's trajectory in the coming days. This report will play a key role in influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision at its final meeting of the year in December.
Inflation figures will be a decisive factor, contributing 60-70% to the Fed's decision on whether to lower rates again this year. If inflation rises to 2.6% or higher, it would indicate that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates by more than 0.25%, and even that scenario remains uncertain. Traders may interpret rising inflation as an additional basis for buying the dollar. Therefore, the strength of today's report will directly influence the likelihood of further dollar gains. Conversely, weak US inflation could facilitate a modest recovery for the pound and euro.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded twice from the 1.3044 corrective level and dropped to the 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745. A rebound from this level might indicate some recovery for the pound. However, the pair has been trading near this level for at least 20 hours without bouncing. A bullish divergence slightly increases the probability of a reversal in favor of the pound, but a strong US inflation report could lead to another decline today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bullish during the last reporting week but remains overall bullish. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,899, while short positions grew by 9,373. Bulls still maintain a significant advantage, with a margin of 45,000 contracts: 121,000 long versus 76,000 short.
In my view, the pound remains poised for further declines, and even the COT reports signal an increase in bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 102,000 to 120,000, while short positions have increased from 55,000 to 76,000. I believe professional traders will continue reducing their long positions or increasing their short positions, as all potential factors for buying the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis also indicates further declines for the pound.
Economic Calendar for the US and UK
On Wednesday, the economic calendar contains only one entry, but it is a very important one. The US inflation report could strongly influence market sentiment, particularly in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931, which was achieved twice. Subsequent targets at 1.2931, 1.2892, 1.2788–1.2801, and 1.2752 were also reached.
Buying the pair amid a bearish trend is not advisable for now. Today, any growth in the pair is likely only if US inflation falls short of expectations. Otherwise, selling will continue, with targets at 1.2709 and 1.2665.
Fibonacci Levels
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