13.11.202415:31 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 13th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2752 level as a key area for market entry decisions. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. A rise followed by a false breakout at this level provided a selling point for the pound, but after a 15-point downward move, the pressure on the pair eased. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has been marginally adjusted.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), particularly the core measure excluding food and energy, will shape trading in the second half of the day. Higher inflation in the US would likely push the pound lower, while reduced price pressure could allow bulls to extend the correction.

If the pair declines, a false breakout near the 1.2719 support level—a monthly low—will confirm a suitable entry point for long positions, targeting a recovery toward 1.2762. A breakout and retest of this range following the data will create a new opportunity for long positions, with the target set at 1.2796. The furthest target will be the 1.2827 level, where I will take profits.

If GBP/USD falls further and there is no bullish activity near 1.2719, the pound's bearish trend is likely to persist, opening the way toward 1.2695. Only a false breakout at this level would provide a buying opportunity. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2667, targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers have made their presence known, but a more significant decline following yesterday's bearish market has yet to materialize. At this stage, much depends on the US inflation report.

If the pair rises, a false breakout at the 1.2762 resistance after the release of US data will create a selling opportunity, targeting another decline toward the 1.2719 support—a new monthly low. A breakout and retest of this range from below would weaken bullish positions, triggering stop-loss orders and opening the path to 1.2695. The furthest target will be 1.2667, achievable only if US inflation rises more than expected.

If GBP/USD rises and sellers fail to defend 1.2752, buyers may attempt to drive a more substantial correction. Bears will then retreat toward the 1.2796 resistance, where the moving averages currently favor sellers. I will sell at this level only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.2827, targeting a 30-35 point correction downward.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 5 showed a reduction in long positions and a significant increase in short ones. However, the data does not reflect the election of Donald Trump as US president or the Bank of England's rate cuts during the November meeting. Therefore, the report's relevance for current market dynamics is limited. Given the significant pressure on risk assets, a short-term recovery for the British pound seems unlikely.

The COT report indicates:

• Long non-commercial positions fell by 11,899 to 120,737.
• Short non-commercial positions increased by 9,373 to 75,653.
• The gap between long and short positions widened by 1,079.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:The pair is trading below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling continued pound weakness.

Bollinger Bands:In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.2725 will act as support.

Indicator Definitions:

• Moving Average (MA): Identifies the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • Period – 50 (yellow).
  • Period – 30 (green).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – Period 12.
  • Slow EMA – Period 26.
  • SMA – Period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators, including retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: Total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: Total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-commercial Position: The net difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.