14.11.202408:03 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Watch on November 14? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday. In the Eurozone, GDP and industrial production reports will be released, while in the U.S., the Producer Price Index and jobless claims data are expected. However, none of these reports stand out as particularly significant. The GDP report for the Eurozone will be the second estimate, which is objectively the least important among all GDP releases. All other reports may trigger slight market reactions, but likely no more.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Key fundamental events on Thursday include speeches by Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey. However, the question arises: what new information could they share with the market? The Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings took place last week, so it's unlikely that their views or stances have changed in such a short time. Of course, these events should not be ignored, especially as Powell might comment on the U.S. inflation report. However, we do not believe that Powell or Bailey can halt the rise of the U.S. dollar. The Fed is now much closer to pausing in December, which may only fuel further growth in the dollar's value.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline, as the market is currently focused solely on buying the dollar. Powell or Bailey could influence market sentiment, but we believe they will only further support the market's ongoing dollar purchases. All the day's reports are likely to provoke only minor market reactions.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
7. After the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.