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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0536 level as a critical point for trading decisions. Let us examine the 5-minute chart to analyze what occurred. A decline, followed by the formation of a false breakout near 1.0536, provided a solid entry point for buying. This resulted in a modest 20-point rise before demand for the euro dropped significantly. The technical outlook has been updated for the second half of the day.
Today, the US celebrates Thanksgiving, meaning all exchanges are closed. This is likely to reduce volatility and trading volume. However, speculative players could exploit the situation, potentially causing unexpected market fluctuations. In this context, I will focus on the new support level at 1.0514, formed after yesterday's session. A false breakout at this level would provide an opportunity to add long positions, aiming for a rise to 1.0563, a level the pair has yet to breach today. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a valid entry point, with targets at 1.0606. The ultimate goal would be 1.0653, where I plan to take profits.
If EUR/USD declines and fails to hold support around 1.0514 in the second half of the day, the euro will likely face renewed pressure. In this scenario, I will consider long positions only after a false breakout near the 1.0477 support level. I also plan to buy immediately on a rebound from 1.0430, targeting a 30–35 point upward correction during the day.
If the pair rises, protecting the 1.0563 resistance will be the primary goal for sellers in the second half of the day. A false breakout at this level, combined with the absence of significant statistics, would provide an entry point for short positions. Targets would include the 1.0514 support level, where moving averages favor the bulls. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from the bottom up, would signal an opportunity to target the 1.0477 low. The ultimate goal would be 1.0430, where I plan to take profits.
If EUR/USD rises further and sellers fail to act around 1.0564—an unlikely scenario due to the US holiday—I will defer selling until the pair tests the 1.0606 resistance. At this level, I will consider short positions only after a failed consolidation. Additionally, I plan to sell immediately on a rebound from 1.0653, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 19 showed a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions, reflecting a bearish shift in market sentiment. Long non-commercial positions decreased by 5,698 to 154,305, while short non-commercial positions rose by 29,422 to 196,862. As a result, the net position spread narrowed by 2,422.
This data highlights the continued bearish sentiment in the market. The lack of buyers for the euro remains a critical factor, making a significant rise in the pair unlikely in the near term. Furthermore, with persistent pressure on the euro, traders appear more inclined to sell even at current lows.
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