04.12.202413:28 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: USD/JPY: Positive Dynamics of the USD/JPY Pair Does Not Equal a Positive Forecast

Today, the USD/JPY pair is gaining strong positive momentum, supported by a rebound from the 148.60 level, which is its lowest level since October 11th. However, the potential for growth seems limited.

It seems that investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to lowering interest rates, amid expectations that the policies of newly elected US President Donald Trump will lead to rising inflation. Such expectations are driving US Treasury yields higher. This is a key factor pulling funds away from the low-yielding Japanese yen, supporting the US dollar, and providing additional momentum for the USD/JPY pair.

However, dollar bulls are hesitant to open aggressive positions, preferring to wait for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to gather more information on the future path of interest rate cuts. Additionally, according to the CPI – November's consumer price index for Tokyo, published last week – it is clear that core inflation is picking up, fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in December. This is helping to limit further upside for the USD/JPY pair.

Traders should watch for the release of the US ADP report on private sector employment for potential trading opportunities. However, the main focus should be on the official monthly employment data or Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will guide the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. This, in turn, will stimulate demand for the US dollar and determine the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet left negative territory, suggesting caution before opening new positions.