06.12.202413:38 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: GBP/USD: December 6 – Bears Are Prepared and Awaiting Signals from the US

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, closing above the resistance zone of 1.2709–1.2734. This suggests that the upward trend may extend toward the next resistance zone at 1.2788–1.2801. However, a reversal and consolidation below 1.2709–1.2734 could strengthen the US dollar, resulting in a decline toward the support zone at 1.2611–1.2620.

The wave pattern is clear. The most recent completed upward wave exceeded the previous high by only 30 points, while the most recent downward wave failed to surpass the prior low. This indicates a potential end to the bearish trend. While bullish traders may attempt to dominate, any upward trend may remain weak, despite this week's confident buying activity.

Notably, Thursday saw little impactful news from the US and UK, yet bulls managed to make steady advances. This raises concerns due to the lack of strong justification for the pound's rally this week. Today's US reports could provide clarity on the market situation. If the pound's rise is purely corrective and US data comes in strong, a new bearish trend may begin today. Conversely, weak US data could reinforce the bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is more apparent: the pound remains in a downtrend. While the hourly chart's prolonged correction may give the impression of a bullish trend, the 4-hour chart confirms the continuation of the decline, with any upward movement appearing relatively weak. Therefore, I maintain a bearish outlook.

The pair has returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This suggests a potential continuation of the upward movement toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.2861. However, the release of strong US reports today could still trigger a decline for the pound, despite the technical signals. Currently, no forming divergences are observed across any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The latest COT report indicates that:

• Non-commercial traders' sentiment has become less bullish.
• Long positions decreased by 18,279 positions, while short positions dropped by 2,544 positions.
• Bulls maintain a notable lead with 102,000 long positions versus 61,000 short positions.

Over the past three months:

• Long positions have slightly decreased, from 102,000 to 101,000.
• Short positions have increased, from 55,000 to 62,000.

This indicates that professional traders are gradually reducing long positions or increasing short positions, as the momentum for buying the pound appears to be exhausted. Technical analysis also signals a potential decline for the pound.

News Calendar for the US and UK

• US – Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• US – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• US – Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

Friday's economic calendar includes four significant reports, each of which has the potential to strongly influence market sentiment, especially in the second half of the day.

Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice

Sell recommendations:Selling opportunities were available when the pair rebounded from 1.2709–1.2734, targeting 1.2611–1.2620. This target has been successfully reached. New selling opportunities may arise if the pair closes below the 1.2709–1.2734 zone.

Buy recommendations:Caution is advised for buying at this time. However, the pound may see growth if US reports disappoint.

Fibonacci Levels:

• Hourly chart: Based on the range of 1.3000–1.3432.
• 4-hour chart: Based on the range of 1.2299–1.3432.