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The test of the 1.2364 price level in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was already significantly above the zero mark, which limited the upward potential of the currency pair. For this reason, I chose not to buy the pound. Additionally, I did not observe a second test of 1.2364 that would prompt me to initiate a sell trade.
The pound declined in response to news that Trump is planning to declare a state of emergency regarding the U.S. economy. Even the weak ADP labor market data released in the second half of the day did not help GBP/USD recover. Experts note that Trump's declaration of an economic emergency could lead to stricter trade restrictions and heightened tensions among the U.S., China, the Eurozone, and the UK. This situation could result in further capital outflows from emerging markets and strengthen the dollar's position as the primary reserve currency.
Today, Sarah Breeden, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Financial Stability, is scheduled to speak in the first half of the day. Known for her balanced and thoughtful statements, Breeden often influences the central bank's future actions. Traders will pay close attention to her assessment of the current economic situation, particularly regarding inflationary pressures and the prospects for interest rate changes. Special emphasis will be on her comments about the resilience of the banking system and the risks related to future interest rates. If she hints at tightening monetary policy, it could trigger increased market volatility. Conversely, a softer tone might support risk assets.
For intraday strategies, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the 1.2325 entry point (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2386 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2386, I plan to exit the purchase and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement away from the level. Counting on the pound to rise today is unlikely—only within the framework of a correction after yesterday's sell-off. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price level 1.2286 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposing levels of 1.2325 and 1.2386 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking below the 1.2286 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2231, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement away from the level. Selling the pound at higher levels is preferable, continuing the forming bearish trend. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2325 price level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.2286 and 1.2231 can be expected.
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